Charles Hoskinson is getting a lot of attention lately. He is regularly appearing on the crypto media pages, expressing his views on certain topics.
His latest quest is to attack the network he helped to co-found. On a podcast, he laid out his views as to why Ethereum only has 10-15 years left.
Of course, we have to keep in mind that Hoskinson left Ethereum and built a rival network. Could this be skewing his views? It is always good to look at the source.
We also have to consider the fact that Cardano, the ecosystem Hoskinson kicked off, is not a guaranteed success. Many of the choices made regarding that system are disputed.
In this article we will dig into where Hoskinson sees Ethereum going and the pitfalls it could face.
Image from article linked below
Charles Hoskinson: Ethereum Will Be Dead In 10-15 Years
Some of the point Charles Hoskinson brings up are not new. Many have discussed, for example, the value being extracted from the base layer, with the L2 starting to take over. It is a situation I am sure the Ethereum Foundation grasps also.
The basis for Hoskinson's conclusion extends beyond this. He feels the core of Ethereum is flawed.
Here are the points he brings up:
- the wrong accounting model
- the wrong virtual machine
- the wrong consensus model
When it comes to a blockchain network, there isn't much that is relevant beyond this. Hence, we can follow his thinking toward the doomed conclusion.
This, naturally, does not make him correct. It does raise some concern about what is taking place.
Some of his ideas for resolution are as follows:
He suggested a shift to what he called a “telescoping protocol design” such as Ouroboros-Leios—Cardano’s forthcoming upgrade path—and urged Ethereum developers to look at the “object model of SWE,” along with Narwhal-and-Tusk-style consensus, and a move to the RISC-V instruction set. “Something like RISC-V with intent, with an object model like SWE, probably would fit their ecosystem quite well,” he argued.
Yet the bigger obstacle, in Hoskinson’s view, is Ethereum’s lack of formalized self-governance. “They really don’t have a good on-chain governance system,” he said. Building one, he estimates, would take “five to seven years” given the network’s size and entrenched stakeholders. Without it, he warned, protocol upgrades and community coordination will remain fragile.
What we are dealing with is an aggressive forecast. It is hard to believe something like this could happen but technological history shows us otherwise. It is possible for Ethereum, at some point, to be a nothing chain.
In fact, many others are also making similar claims. On this, Hoskinson is not alone.
MySpace And Blackberry
It is easy to compare these types of situations to MySpace and Blackberry. They were market leaders, bringing innovation to the market. However, over time, they were usurped by others, providing a valuable lesson on disruption.
Could Ethereum face a similar fate?
One of the keys to focus upon is the fact that MySpace and Blackberry suffered due to the innovation of others. This is, in my estimation, what Hoskinson is saying here. Ethereum is simply obsolete due to innovation.
As a tangent, we have to point out that, while Cardano is going down some innovative paths, it is not without dispute. Some of the design decisions by his team have been equally as contested. While he is following a different path, Cardano is not at the top of the leaderboard either.
In other words, it is easy for Mark Zuckerberg to talk about Facebook surpassing MySpace. There is a track record. Other social media entities tried and failed.
Cardano could just as easily fall into the latter.
Another part of this discussion is the fact that Vitalik and other developers within the Ethereum community are well aware of some of the issues. None of what is being discussed here is fringe stuff. It is hotly debated both inside and outside the Ethereum Foundation.
Vitalik himself regularly takes to his blog, offering up ideas to problems Ethereum (and the industry) are encountering.
The question we are left with is whether Hoskinson is accurate in his assessment or is this just sour grapes?
He did mention the fact that Bitcoin DeFi is going to hit the market in the future. Once this happens, TVL will likely flood into that ecosystem. While Hoskinson alluded to the fact this is a negative for Ethereum, it is also a challenge to Cardano.
It seems there might be a mirror that is part of the equation. Cardano could have its own vulnerabilities.
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